Will the Democratic Party win the SC-07 House seat?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$34.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the South Carolina 7th Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for decider judgment regarding what constitutes consensus, but the rules include a definitive fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises. The rules clearly handle third-party or independent candidates by defining party affiliation through ballot listing or stated caucus intent evaluated at the time all 2026 House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the South Carolina 7th Congressional District U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the SC-07 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with a different party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback authority
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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