Will the Democratic Party win the SC-03 House seat?
Current price
3.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.05%
$24.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the South Carolina 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules provide clear criteria for determining a candidate's party affiliation, including a specific caucus-intent provision for independent or third-party candidates. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for decider interpretation regarding what constitutes a consensus, but there is a definitive fallback to official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous. Timing is tied to when all 2026 House races are called nationwide, which could introduce minor delays if other districts face recounts or protracted counts.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the SC-03 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date of the midterm elections stated in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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