Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat?
Current price
12.7¢
+0.55¢ · 24h
Implied probability 12.7%
$26K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows a standard election resolution format for the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results if any reporting ambiguity arises. Party affiliation mechanics are clearly defined: a candidate's party is determined by their ballot listing, and independent or third-party candidates are mapped to a major party based on their publicly stated caucusing intentions once all House races are conclusively called. The criteria leave little room for unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives election for South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the SC-02 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or, for candidates without a Democratic or Republican ballot listing, by their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with any other party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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