Will the Republican Party win the SC-02 House seat?
Current price
87.5¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 87.5%
$23K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance for candidates not listed on the ballot as Democrat or Republican based on their stated intent to caucus. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission website if any ambiguity arises. Timing aligns with the calling of all 2026 House races, posing minimal ambiguity or unexpected edge cases for participants.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the SC-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if not listed, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source for official results.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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