Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?
Current price
32.5¢
+1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 32.5%
$56.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning party of South Carolina's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how independent or third-party candidates are categorized by looking at their ballot label or stated caucus intent when all House races are conclusively called. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive backup if ambiguity arises. The mechanics are standard and clearly defined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins South Carolina's 1st congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are classified based on their stated intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the SC-01 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all House elections are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party, such as the Republican Party, wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If credible reporting is ambiguous, official results reported by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) will decide the resolution.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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