Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?
Current price
67.5¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 67.5%
$28.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard terms for a US House election outcome in the 2026 midterms. It primary relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official government reporting from the Federal Election Commission serving as a fallback if results are contested or ambiguous. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including clear fallback criteria for third-party or independent candidates based on their stated caucusing intentions at the time all House elections are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for South Carolina's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party label are classified based on their stated caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the SC-01 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A winning candidate without a ballot-listed party affiliation counts as Republican if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if a non-Republican candidate wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity exists, the official results from the Federal Election Commission decide the resolution.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The election date specified in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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