Will the Democratic Party win the PA-15 House seat?
Current price
4.05¢
+0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.05%
$20.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine both the race winner and the point at which all House races nationwide are settled, which gives the decider latitude to determine when consensus is reached. If reporting remains ambiguous, resolution falls back to official Federal Election Commission certified data, which can take months post-election. For candidates not appearing on the ballot as Democrats or Republicans, the rules define party affiliation by their most recently declared intent to caucus at the time all national House elections are called. Overall, the outcome closely tracks standard congressional election results with clear fallback mechanisms for unusual ballot situations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the election for Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterms. Unaffiliated candidates count toward a party if they expressed intent to caucus with that party before all House races are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the PA-15 seat is ballot-listed or identifiably affiliated with the Democratic Party, or has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with another party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official results reported by the Federal Election Commission in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — Date of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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