Will the Republican Party win the PA-03 House seat?
Current price
2¢
+0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2%
$13.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which party wins Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district in the November 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how to treat party affiliation for ballot-listed candidates as well as non-major-party candidates via their stated caucusing intentions. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated official backup—the Federal Election Commission—if any ambiguity arises. While evaluating media consensus involves some discretion, standard election outcomes for US House seats are unambiguous, and the rules clearly outline the fallback path to official government certification.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the PA-03 seat is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the winning candidate belongs to another party or caucuses elsewhere. The winning party is determined when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Election Day for the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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