Will the Republican Party win the OR-04 House seat?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$19.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines resolution based on the winning party for the OR-04 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how third-party or independent winners are handled by looking at their declared caucusing intent at the time all House races are decided. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named outlet, but it establishes a definitive fallback to official election results certified by the Federal Election Commission if reporting is disputed or ambiguous. Overall, the mechanics are straightforward and unlikely to create unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the Oregon's 4th congressional district (OR-04) seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the OR-04 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation, or by the candidate's most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed as Democrat or Republican. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party, such as the Democratic Party, wins the seat. The outcome is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback source in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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