Will the Republican Party win the OR-03 House seat?
Current price
4¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4%
$15.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows the standard outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Oregon's 3rd Congressional District. Outcome resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission website if reporting is ambiguous. Timing may involve some delay because party identification for non-major-party candidates is evaluated only after all House races nationwide are conclusively called, and election certification or official calls can take weeks. The rules explicitly specify how third-party or independent candidates are assigned to a party based on declared caucusing intent, minimizing ambiguity about candidate party affiliation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Oregon's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the OR-03 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation counts as a Republican if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans at the time all House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with or intending to caucus with the Republican Party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The date of the midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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