Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat?
Current price
95.95¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.95%
$62.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves directly on which party wins Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a decider evaluating a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission records serving as the decisive backup if reporting is ambiguous. The terms provide clear criteria for determining a winner's party affiliation, including fallback rules based on caucus intent for independent or unaffiliated candidates. Resolution is tied to when all House elections nationwide are conclusively called, which may introduce minor delays if other districts experience extended recounts or disputes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House elections. Notably, candidates without a Democrat or Republican ballot affiliation are categorized based on their most recently expressed intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the OK-03 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot, or if unaffiliated, has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or expresses intent to caucus with another party. Party affiliation is determined at the time all 2026 House races are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Election day for the 2026 midterm House races.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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