Will the Democratic Party win the OH-15 House seat?
Current price
26¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 26%
$11.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning Ohio's 15th congressional district seat in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including fallback rules for independent candidates based on stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. While relying on reporting consensus involves some discretion before official certification, congressional race outcomes are standard and unambiguous, presenting minimal risk of unexpected resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the Ohio 15th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the OH-15 seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus if unaffiliated with either major party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with any other party or caucuses with another party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity exists, official results reported by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) will decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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