Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat?
Current price
72¢
−2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 72%
$5.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party of the candidate winning the Ohio 15th Congressional District in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit fallback logic for candidates lacking a major party ballot listing based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated official backup source in the Federal Election Commission if results are ambiguous. Because House elections can occasionally face recounts, certification delays, or differing race calls across media outlets, resolution waits until all races are conclusively called or official results are finalized, which presents minor timing and source discretion factors but follows standard election market conventions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Ohio's 15th congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the OH-15 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot, or if unaffiliated with either major party, has most recently expressed an intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or caucuses with another party. Party affiliation and caucus intent are determined at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The date on which the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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