Will the Democratic Party win the OH-12 House seat?
Current price
4.15¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.15%
$15.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves according to the party affiliation of the winning candidate for Ohio's 12th congressional district in the November 2026 midterm elections. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, which leaves some latitude to the resolver, but the rules provide a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is contested or ambiguous. Clear mechanics are included to classify independent or non-major-party winners according to their stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are determined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the OH-12 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a ballot affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties are classified based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the OH-12 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on their ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or most recently expressed caucus intent when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Republican Party or another non-Democratic affiliation under the same criteria. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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