Will the Democratic Party win the OH-10 House seat?
Current price
19¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 19%
$24.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the OH-10 congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as an official fallback if ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly handle independent or third-party candidates by attributing them to the party they intend to caucus with at the time all House races are called. Election results may take days or weeks to finalize depending on counting speed and close margins, but the fallback to official federal election certification provides a clear ultimate backstop.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate wins the Ohio 10th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections, including candidates who express intent to caucus with Democrats.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the OH-10 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats if unlisted. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. The outcome is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are called. If reporting remains ambiguous, the market resolves solely using official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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