Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?
Last captured price
83¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 83%
$28.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly specifies that outcome resolution depends on which party wins the Ohio 10th congressional district in the 2026 midterms. Primary resolution relies on an informal consensus of news reports, though official Federal Election Commission reporting acts as a defined backup if reporting is disputed. Party affiliation rules explicitly address non-major party candidates by checking their declared caucusing intent at the moment all national House races are called, which may tie the exact resolution timing to the final uncalled House race elsewhere in the country.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Ohio's 10th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the OH-10 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is counted based on the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback for ambiguous results
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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