Will the Democratic Party win the OH-08 House seat?
Last captured price
7.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.5%
$9.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the Ohio 8th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results if an outcome is disputed or ambiguous. Rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how independent candidates are classified according to their declared caucus intent when all House elections are called. The criteria are straightforward with minimal risk of an unexpected resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Ohio's 8th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party label are classified by their caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the OH-08 congressional district seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or their most recently stated intent to caucus when all House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party, such as the Republican Party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If reporting is ambiguous, official results from the Federal Election Commission decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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