Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?
Current price
82¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 82%
$66.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Ohio's 7th congressional district. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine both the winner and when all House races are conclusively called, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as a formal fallback if reporting is ambiguous. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how independent or third-party candidates are classified based on their stated intention to caucus.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate will win Ohio's 7th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the OH-07 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm election is affiliated with or intends to caucus with the Democratic Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with another party, such as the Republican Party. A candidate without a ballot-listed party affiliation is categorized based on the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House races are called. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official deciding source if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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