Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?
Current price
16.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 16.5%
$42.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the criteria for winning the seat in the 2026 midterms, including standard handling for independent candidates based on ballot affiliation or caucus intent. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which involves some judgement about media calls, but ambiguity is mitigated by a defined fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Ohio's 7th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates who caucus with the party if unaffiliated on the ballot.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the OH-07 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party, such as the Democratic Party, wins the seat. Candidate party affiliation is based on their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House elections are called. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The date on which the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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