Will the Democratic Party win the OH-04 House seat?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$13.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the winning candidate's party affiliation in Ohio's 4th congressional district during the 2026 midterm elections. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named official source, though official results from the Federal Election Commission serve as a formal fallback if reporting is ambiguous. The rules explicitly handle independent or third-party candidates by attributing them to the major party they intend to caucus with at the time all House races are conclusively called. Because election outcomes and party affiliations in congressional races are generally straightforward, there is minimal surprise risk for market participants.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the election for Ohio's 4th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the OH-04 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If a winning candidate lacks a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican Party, they are assigned to the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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