Will the Democratic Party win the NY-23 House seat?
Current price
2.25¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.25%
$32.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which party wins the NY-23 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how third-party or independent affiliations are handled by looking at caucus intent if unlisted on the ballot. While primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which involves some discretion, an unambiguous fallback to official Federal Election Commission reporting is provided in case of disputes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for New York's 23rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NY-23 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party or does not caucus with the Democrats. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results used if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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