Will the Republican Party win the NY-14 House seat?
Current price
3.1¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.1%
$30.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which political party wins New York's 14th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how a candidate's party is identified, including clear provisions for third-party or independent candidates based on their expressed intent to caucus. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named outlet, but it includes an explicit fallback to official results published by the Federal Election Commission if any dispute or ambiguity arises. Resolution timing is tied to when all House elections are conclusively called, which could take weeks after election day if legal challenges or recounts occur elsewhere, but the outcome conditions for this specific seat are clearly defined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate representing the Republican Party wins the New York's 14th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or, if unaffiliated with the two major parties, by expressed intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the NY-14 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or, for candidates without a Democrat or Republican ballot listing, by the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House elections are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Election day for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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