Will the Democratic Party win the NY-11 House seat?
Current price
5.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.5%
$23.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on which party wins New York's 11th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for decider judgment as to when consensus is achieved, with the Federal Election Commission acting as a backstop in ambiguous cases. Additionally, a candidate's party affiliation or stated intent to caucus is evaluated at the moment all 2026 House races nationwide are conclusively called, meaning prolonged counts or recounts in other districts across the country could delay the exact timing of resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the election for the U.S. House of Representatives seat in New York's 11th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the NY-11 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, determined by ballot listing or expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate not affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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