Will the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat?
Current price
14.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14.5%
$11.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party of the candidate winning New York's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly address party affiliation, including specific handling for third-party or independent candidates based on ballot listing or caucusing intent. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission certification serving as an unambiguous fallback if reporting is inconclusive. Because official congressional election results can take time to certify, there is slight potential for delay if results are contested, but the criteria for party attribution and the ultimate resolution hierarchy are clearly specified.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins New York's 2nd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates who intend to caucus with Democrats if unaffiliated on the ballot.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NY-02 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats if not listed as Democrat or Republican. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party, such as the Republican Party, wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If reporting is ambiguous, official results from the Federal Election Commission decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections stated in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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