Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat?
Current price
29.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 29.5%
$24.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 Nevada 2nd Congressional District election based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive backup if ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly define how candidate party affiliation is determined, including how to handle independent or non-major-party candidates via their stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are called. Because election certification and reporting consensus can take time, resolution may experience standard post-election reporting delays, but the fallback to official FEC records limits unilateral decider judgment.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Nevada's 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. Party affiliation includes candidates who express intent to caucus with Democrats if not listed on the ballot.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the NV-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. It resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — The date the 2026 midterm elections will take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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