Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat?
Current price
72.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 72.5%
$18.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly on the winning party of the NV-02 House seat in the November 2026 midterms. It provides clear handling for non-major party candidates by evaluating ballot affiliation or caucusing intent at the time all House races are called. Resolution is primarily determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is any ambiguity. The criteria leave very little room for unexpected interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Nevada's 2nd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NV-02 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called, or by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with if unlisted. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date of the election specified in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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