Will the Republican Party win the NJ-11 House seat?
Current price
3.85¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.85%
$23.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market cleanly defines the target race as the New Jersey 11th Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on an informal consensus of credible media reporting, which grants latitude to the resolver to judge whether a consensus exists, though official Federal Election Commission reporting acts as a formal fallback in ambiguous situations. The rules also provide clear guidelines for party attribution in the event of an independent or third-party candidate caucusing with a major party.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the New Jersey's 11th Congressional District House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates not listed on the ballot as Democrat or Republican are classified based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NJ-11 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus at the time all House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Republican Party under those criteria. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The election takes place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback for official results.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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