Will the Republican Party win the NJ-08 House seat?
Current price
1.65¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.65%
$39.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly based on the winning candidate's party affiliation in the 2026 NJ-08 election. The primary decider relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to Federal Election Commission data if reporting is ambiguous. Candidates not officially listed under a major party are assigned based on their stated caucus intentions at the time all House races are called. There are no unusual triggers or hidden conditions that would contradict a straightforward reading of the question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for New Jersey's 8th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. If a candidate is not listed on the ballot as a Democrat or Republican, their party affiliation is determined by their most recently expressed intent to caucus.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the NJ-08 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed on the ballot as a Democrat or Republican, assessed once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. This market resolves to No if a candidate from another party or an independent wins the seat. The outcome is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results used if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm elections: — The midterm elections take place on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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