Will the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat?
Current price
17.5¢
+1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 17.5%
$25.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning Nebraska's 1st congressional district in the November 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results reported by the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly specify how third-party or independent winners are categorized based on their ballot designation or their stated intent to caucus when all House races are called. Overall, the outcome criteria and fallback sources are clearly structured with minimal room for surprising edge cases.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Nebraska's 1st congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their stated caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NE-01 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate represents the Republican Party or any other non-Democratic affiliation under these criteria. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections stated in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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