Will the Democratic Party win the NC-14 House seat?
Current price
9.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9.5%
$25.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which party wins the NC-14 House seat in the November 2026 midterms. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission certification serving as a definitive backup if ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly define how candidate party affiliations are established, including clear fallback criteria based on expressed intent to caucus for candidates who are not formally listed on the ballot as Democrats or Republicans. The timing depends on all House races being conclusively called, which introduces standard post-election waiting periods for vote counting or certification, but the core mechanics are straightforward and present minimal surprise risk.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the NC-14 U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party affiliation on the ballot are classified based on their stated caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the NC-14 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, or by the party the candidate most recently expressed intent to caucus with at the time all House races are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, official results from the Federal Election Commission decide the outcome.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date of the election.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source for official results
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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