Will the Democratic Party win the NC-07 House seat?
Current price
14.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14.5%
$14.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the NC-07 House race in the 2026 midterm elections based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission data serving as a definitive fallback if results are contested or ambiguous. The rules clearly define party affiliation via ballot listing and include a specific caucus-intent standard for independent or third-party candidates evaluated once all House races are called. While determining consensus reporting requires some initial discretion, the objective nature of congressional election results and the official government fallback leave minimal room for unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the election for the U.S. House of Representatives seat in North Carolina's 7th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NC-07 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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