Will the Republican Party win the NC-06 House seat?
Current price
90.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 90.5%
$30.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard US midterm election criteria for North Carolina's 6th congressional district. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including an explicit mechanism for independent or third-party candidates based on caucusing intentions. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if reporting is contested or ambiguous. Potential delay in certification is standard for federal elections but well-handled by the defined fallback hierarchy.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for North Carolina's 6th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a Republican candidate wins the NC-06 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a non-Republican candidate wins the seat. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called; candidates without a ballot affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties are assigned based on their most recently expressed caucus intent at that time. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm election date: — The date of the 2026 midterm elections stated in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the sole source in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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