Will the Republican Party win the NC-04 House seat?
Current price
3.15¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.15%
$67.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly tracks which party wins the NC-04 congressional race in the 2026 midterms. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible media reporting to call the race, but includes an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if results remain ambiguous. Timing could experience slight delays if final election calls or certifications across House races take time to finalize, and independent candidates are attributed to a major party based on their stated intent to caucus.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for North Carolina's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the NC-04 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation counts as a Republican if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a winning candidate is affiliated with or caucuses with another party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Election day for the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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