Will the Democratic Party win the MT-02 House seat?
Current price
0.7¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.7%
$42.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria align closely with the straightforward question. The winner is determined by standard election outcomes for the 2026 MT-02 congressional race. Party affiliation relies first on ballot listing, with explicit rules assigning independent candidates based on their stated caucus intent. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with a designated official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if results are ambiguous or contested.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins Montana's 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the MT-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is based on ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate belongs to or caucuses with another party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source for official results
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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