Will the Republican Party win the MS-01 House seat?
Current price
96¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96%
$85.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins Mississippi's 1st Congressional District in the November 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting rather than an initial definitive official registry, though official Federal Election Commission reporting serves as a designated fallback if reporting is ambiguous. The rules explicitly define how party affiliation is handled, including clear provisions for non-major party candidates based on their stated intent to caucus when all House races are called. While congressional race calls and final certifications can take days or weeks following election night, the terms closely match what a reader would standardly expect from the title.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Republican candidate wins Mississippi's 1st congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the MS-01 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation counts as a Republican if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans by the time all 2026 House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or caucuses with another party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity arises, official results reported by the Federal Election Commission decide the outcome.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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