Will the Democratic Party win the MO-07 House seat?
Current price
3.9¢
+0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.9%
$13.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows the standard outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Missouri's 7th congressional district. Primary resolution relies on deciders determining a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission certified data serving as an explicit backup if ambiguity arises. The rules clearly define how candidate party affiliation is established, including provisions that assign independent or third-party candidates to a major party based on their stated caucus intentions at the time all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the MO-07 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is based on the ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House elections are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole authority in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — Date on which the 2026 midterm elections will take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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