Will the Democratic Party win the MO-06 House seat?
Current price
4¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4%
$32.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows standard election resolution mechanics for the 2026 midterms. Resolution is primarily determined by a consensus of credible media reporting, with official Federal Election Commission certified data serving as a binding fallback in cases of dispute or ambiguity. Clear provisions are included to classify independent or third-party winners based on their stated intent to caucus at the time the cycle's races are called. Overall, there are no unusual clauses or major ambiguities that would lead to unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win Missouri's 6th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections, accounting for ballot affiliation or caucusing intent for non-major party candidates.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the MO-06 seat is affiliated with or intends to caucus with the Democratic Party when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if another party's candidate wins. For candidates without a major party ballot listing, party affiliation is determined by their most recently expressed intent to caucus. A consensus of credible reporting decides the election outcome, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the deciding source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) resolving any ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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