Will the Democratic Party win the MN-08 House seat?
Current price
12.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 12.5%
$10.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which party wins the Minnesota 8th Congressional District seat in the November 2026 midterm elections. The rules establish specific criteria for independent or third-party candidates by looking at their declared caucusing intentions. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a definitive fallback to official election results certified and reported by the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. While consensus reporting leaves some judgment to the resolver in the immediate aftermath of the election, the clear fallback to official government records minimizes long-term ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate representing or caucusing with the Democratic Party wins Minnesota's 8th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the MN-08 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats if not affiliated on the ballot. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party, such as the Republican Party, wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity exists, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the sole official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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