Will the Democratic Party win the MN-06 House seat?
Current price
1.9¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.9%
$65.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on the party affiliation of the candidate elected to represent Minnesota's 6th Congressional District in the 2026 midterms. The rules explicitly define how party membership is assessed, including handling candidates without a direct party label on the ballot by referencing their declared intent to caucus at the time the elections are called. The resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, which carries moderate decider discretion, but it includes a clear fallback to official results published by the Federal Election Commission to eliminate lingering ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Minnesota's 6th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major-party ballot listing are classified based on their most recently stated caucus intentions.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the MN-06 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Republican Party or another party not caucusing with Democrats. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the deciding source if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections specified in the rules.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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