Will the Republican Party win the MN-04 House seat?
Current price
3.6¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.6%
$20.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning Minnesota's 4th Congressional District in the 2026 midterms. The primary basis for resolution is a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission data serving as a backup if reporting is ambiguous. Independent or third-party candidates are assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent once all House elections are called. The resolution framework is clear and aligned with standard election tracking.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Minnesota's 4th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections. Candidates without a ballot-listed major party affiliation are assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the MN-04 House seat represents the Republican Party, determined by ballot affiliation or stated intent to caucus at the time all 2026 House elections are called. The market resolves No if a candidate representing any other party wins the seat. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback official source.
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