Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat?
Current price
95.85¢
+0.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.85%
$59.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market asks a direct question about which party wins Michigan's 11th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly address standard edge cases, such as independent candidates, by looking at ballot affiliation or stated intent to caucus. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible media reporting rather than waiting exclusively for certified results, which leaves judgment to the market operator regarding when a consensus is reached, though official Federal Election Commission records serve as a formal backstop in ambiguous scenarios.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the election for Michigan's 11th congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates lacking a ballot-listed party affiliation are classified according to their most recently expressed caucus intent when all House races are conclusively called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party by ballot listing or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Republican Party or another non-Democratic affiliation. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If there is ambiguity in reporting, the market resolves solely based on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Election day for the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback authority
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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