Will the Republican Party win the MD-06 House seat?
Current price
3.95¢
+0.8¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.95%
$14.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winner of Maryland's 6th Congressional District in the 2026 midterms. Resolution initially relies on an unspecified consensus of credible reporting, with a designated fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results if an outcome is ambiguous or contested. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance for independent or third-party candidates based on their stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are called. There are no unusual edge cases or early resolution triggers that would surprise someone reading the core question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the Maryland 6th Congressional District (MD-06) seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections. For candidates without a listed party affiliation, party status is determined by their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a Republican Party candidate wins the MD-06 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or, if unlisted, by the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus once all House elections are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.