Will the Republican Party win the MA-09 House seat?
Current price
2.35¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.35%
$18.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning Massachusetts's 9th congressional district in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly specify how party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance that independent candidates are attributed to a party based on their stated caucus intentions. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting acting as a clear secondary backstop if reporting is disputed or ambiguous. Resolution timing depends on when all House races nationwide are settled.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the Massachusetts's 9th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the MA-09 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. A winning candidate's party is determined by their ballot listing or identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed as Democrat or Republican. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the authority if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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