Will the Republican Party win the MA-02 House seat?
Current price
3.8¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.8%
$39.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly based on which party wins the 2026 midterm election for Massachusetts's 2nd congressional district. The rules provide explicit fallback criteria for third-party or independent candidates, attributing them to a party based on their stated caucus intent. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the binding backup if reporting is ambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the Massachusetts's 2nd congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major-party ballot listing are classified based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the MA-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the winning candidate represents or caucuses with another party. Party affiliation is determined when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting, or solely on official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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