Will the Democratic Party win the LA-06 House seat?
Last captured price
6¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6%
$32.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the Louisiana 6th congressional district election in the 2026 midterms. Resolution initially relies on an evaluator judging whether there is a consensus among credible reporting outlets, with the Federal Election Commission serving as an official fallback if ambiguity arises. Party affiliation is explicitly defined by ballot listing or caucus intent if the winner runs without a major party label, evaluated when all House races are called. The resolution rules directly track the plain reading of the question with clear tie-breakers for independent candidates.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the Louisiana's 6th Congressional District (LA-06) seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the LA-06 seat has a ballot-listed or identifiable Democratic affiliation, or expresses intent to caucus with Democrats if unaffiliated, when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate belongs to or intends to caucus with another party, such as the Republican Party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the final authority in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — The midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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