Will the Republican Party win the LA-04 House seat?
Current price
94.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 94.5%
$3.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the Louisiana 4th Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for interpretation by the decider rather than pointing strictly to a single official reporting desk from the outset, though official Federal Election Commission reporting acts as a clear backstop if ambiguity arises. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including standard caucus-intent guidelines for candidates who do not run under a major party banner.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Louisiana's 4th congressional district (LA-04) in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are classified by their expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the LA-04 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with any other party or intends to caucus with another party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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