Will the Republican Party win the LA-03 House seat?
Current price
95.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.5%
$23.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which political party wins the Louisiana 3rd Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous. Explicit rules handle party affiliation, specifying that candidates without a major-party ballot listing will be categorized by their stated caucus intentions at the time all House races are called. While Louisiana's unique electoral system can lead to December runoffs, the rules encompass the 2026 midterm election cycle cleanly, leaving little room for surprising interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Louisiana's 3rd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the LA-03 seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party or intending to caucus elsewhere wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission will decide the resolution.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the sole source if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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