Will the Democratic Party win the LA-01 House seat?
Current price
3.9¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.9%
$30.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which party wins Louisiana's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules establish specific criteria for determining party affiliation, including handling non-major party candidates via their stated caucus intent when all House races are conclusively called. While initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, the Federal Election Commission is explicitly named as an official fallback in case of ambiguity, keeping resolution risk low.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the Louisiana 1st Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections. Candidates lacking a ballot-listed party affiliation are assigned a party based on their stated caucus intentions.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the LA-01 seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Republican Party or another non-Democratic party. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, resolution relies solely on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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