Will the Democratic Party win the KY-05 House seat?
Current price
3.75¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.75%
$28.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the 2026 midterm election for Kentucky's 5th congressional district. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some decider discretion regarding when all House races are considered conclusively called, but the rules provide a clear fallback to official Federal Election Commission reporting if ambiguity arises. Party affiliation mechanics are explicitly outlined, including a defined rule attributing unaffiliated candidates to a party based on their most recently expressed intent to caucus.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Kentucky's 5th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including cases where an unaffiliated winner intends to caucus with Democrats.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the KY-05 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate lacking a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation counts as a Democrat if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats at the time all House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole decider if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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