Will the Democratic Party win the KY-04 House seat?
Current price
4.6¢
+0.45¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.6%
$17.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how the winning candidate and their party affiliation will be determined for Kentucky's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous. Independent or third-party candidates are explicitly accounted for by looking at their declared intention to caucus with a major party at the time all House races are called. There are no unusual edge cases or conflicting criteria that would lead to unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the KY-04 House seat in the 2026 US midterm elections. The resolution considers a candidate's party affiliation at the time all House elections are called, including expressed intent to caucus for candidates without ballot-listed affiliations.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. A candidate's party affiliation is determined by their ballot listing or other identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If a candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation, their party is determined by their most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Democratic or Republican parties at the time all House elections are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with any other party, including the Republican Party, wins the KY-04 seat. The market resolves based on the election results indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
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